How Low Will Bitcoin Go in 2024? Analyzing the Future of the Leading Cryptocurrency

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The world’s oldest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has drawn interest from investors, fans, con artists, and more recently, regulators since its launch in 2009.

For many of its devotees, Bitcoin is not just a novel form of money but also a revolutionary technological advancement that popularized the idea of decentralized currencies and laid the foundation for a whole new class of economy: the cryptocurrency market.

While some of these early investors did manage to join the group of Bitcoin millionaires, many more lost hundreds or even thousands of dollars trying to predict its price movements. For others, it was a way to make quick money.

Notably, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood forecast that Bitcoin might hit a staggering $1. 48 million by 2030. Senior analyst Nicholas Sciberras of Collective Shift notes that the general surprise at Bitcoin’s explosive rise is reflected in this prediction.

“It’s challenging to set a price target because, depending on the degree of adoption and outside variables in the market, the sky could become the limit,” he says.

Since its initial price of less than a cent was recorded, bitcoin has gone a long way. In December 2023, one Bitcoin was worth roughly $42,000. By March 2024, Bitcoin had broken through the $69,000 barrier, setting a new record for intraday trading high. As Sciberras notes, the notion that a single Bitcoin might someday be valued at a million dollars “really shows how far we’ve come.”

When creator Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin white paper in 2009, the cryptocurrency’s journey officially began.

Early on in its history, Bitcoin saw both consistent growth and spurts in its value known as “bull runs.” November 2021 saw one of the biggest bull runs, with the price of Bitcoin reaching $69,000. But as Sciberras notes, there were also times of uncertainty.

He claims that “many Bitcoin ‘forks’ that split the Bitcoin community were proposed between 2014 and 2017.” Hard forks are modifications to the blockchain network’s fundamental protocol that divide a cryptocurrency into two

Various community factions attempted to steer Bitcoin in different directions during these pivotal moments in its history. Bitcoin has remained in its current form despite contentious discussions and multiple forks.

“One of the main reasons Bitcoin is where it is now, boosting its confidence and resilience, is because it survived these attempts to change,” claims Sciberras.

With Bitcoin forks now a distant memory, %E2%80%9CIt has weathered many storms and attempts to change it, combining for less than 1% of Bitcoin’s E2%80%99 total market capitalization. ”.

The halving event, which occurs approximately every four years and lowers the rate at which new coins are created, is another characteristic that characterizes the price history of Bitcoin. It is anticipated that the subsequent halving will take place in early to mid-2024.

According to Sciberras, “We’ve seen a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price both a year before and a year after the halving.”

The halving event is seen by many investors as one of the key elements influencing the price of Bitcoin. However, Sciberras is circumspect.

He states that it is still unclear how significant the event will be in relation to Bitcoin’s overall price trajectory or how priced-in the halving is.

According to one theory, the four-year halving event is not as important as people believe; rather, it appears to be a catalyst for upward price movement because it aligns with external liquidity cycles. ”.

What Does the Future Hold for Bitcoin?

The bull and bear cases are the two possible outcomes to take into account when forecasting the future of Bitcoin.

According to Sciberras, traditional banking frameworks’ resilience—or lack thereof—may determine whether Bitcoin has a bright future.

“The global economy is facing significant challenges, with the U S. facing a banking crisis and growing debt obligations,” Sciberras says.

“There were several bank failures in 2023, but many people don’t realize that the underlying issue is still there. ”.

In 2024, if bank failures persist, the government might be compelled to intervene and issue stimulus or increase money printing. This would further devalue the U. S. dollar, similar to what occurred during the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Under these circumstances, Bitcoin’s function as a well-known, equitable, and robust asset with a limited supply and immutable game rules may become appealing,” Sciberras states.

Positive developments, according to Sciberras, include the increased demand for block space on the Bitcoin network brought about by recent innovations like ordinals and BRC-20 tokens.

The increased utility, demand, and miner fees may allay worries about Bitcoin’s long-term security budget. With more people adopting the Lightning Network, a layer on top of Bitcoin that allows for faster transactions, Bitcoin may eventually become more than just a store of value.

Sciberras continues, “Bitcoin could increase its overall utility and become more’money’ like—helping it reach those lofty price targets—if it can continue to make progress and adoption in the payment front.”

“We are seeing early signs of Lightning adoption. The total payments made by Lighting Network grew by 201.212% during the last two years. Additionally, Lightning is overcoming obstacles to distribution with more help. ”.

The largest asset manager in the world, BlackRock, filed plans to launch a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for bitcoin in June 2023. Shortly after BlackRock’s announcement, a number of other institutions followed suit, with WisdomTree, ARK Invest, and others filing their first applications or updating those that already existed.

These uses contributed to the increased institutional adoption of Bitcoin in the remaining months of 2023, which helped the price reach a high of nearly $45,000 in December.

There are currently nearly ten applications pending with the SEC, and there is a deadline for deciding whether to approve or reject them. The deadline for making a decision regarding BlackRock’s application is January 10, 2024.

The only Bitcoin ETFs that are currently permitted for trading in the U S. trade in Bitcoin futures. Futures are an intricate type of derivative instrument that is predicated on an asset’s future price.

Sciberras cites the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF as a major factor affecting the price of bitcoin in 2024. Not only would it force actual Bitcoin purchases, which might drive up prices, but it would also give cryptocurrencies in general a great deal more legitimacy.

The approval, he claims, “may channel between $30 billion and $300 billion into Bitcoin.”

Sciberras also mentions the new digital asset reporting guidelines from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), which will loosen regulations on businesses’ ownership and reporting of cryptocurrencies starting in December 2024. These new guidelines eliminate a major barrier for businesses that include Bitcoin in their balance sheet.

Every investment has potential downsides, and Bitcoin is no exception.

On the down side of the ledger, according to Sciberras, there are worries about the long-term security of Bitcoin because the block reward will keep falling. He continues by saying that there is a chance that the spot Bitcoin ETF applications will be turned down, which could lead to a quick sell-off of BTC.

Then there is the divisive discussion surrounding “inscriptions” on the blockchain of Bitcoin. Sciberras observes that there are differing views in the community about their effect on the network’s functionality, even though he acknowledges their potential to generate sustainable fees for the protocol in the long run—especially as more Bitcoins become available and miners become more dependent on fees.

Notably, Luke Dashjr, a well-known original Bitcoin developer, classifies certain inscriptions as “spam.” He claims that they clog the network, making mining more difficult and the network’s ability to function as a whole more difficult. This disparity in viewpoint creates the possibility of an ideological confrontation within the Bitcoin community.

Environmental fall-out is another concern.

There have been persistent attacks on the environmental effects of Bitcoin, with the White House suggesting a tax of up to 200% on Bitcoin miners in the United States. S. ,” Sciberras says.

The ongoing criticism of Bitcoin’s energy usage could jeopardize its price movement.

In the worst-case scenario, Europe might attempt to reinstate the ban on (proof of work), which was attempted in 2022 but quickly overturned. ”.

Bitcoin uses a proof of work validation system. For cryptocurrencies, proof of work is the most energy-intensive validation mechanism available (as opposed to proof of stake).

A shift in governments’ attitudes against Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could potentially drive down prices.

“The U. S. is becoming incredibly hostile towards cryptocurrency and Bitcoin,” Sciberras says.

Governments may also take action to impose restrictions on Bitcoin if its widespread adoption threatens a nation’s monopoly on money.

Sciberras points to a recent bill introduced in the U. S. to strengthen the requirements for reporting digital currency transactions—including those involving unhosted wallets—and to broaden the scope of the Bank Secrecy Act.

“In its current form, this legislation would cripple the U. S. crypto industry,” he says.

Investors are also concerned about the ramifications of Know Your Customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) laws. Sciberras highlights the particular difficulties in imposing stringent reporting obligations on transfers to wallets that are private and self-hosted.

According to Sciberras, “AML laws continue to be a major battleground and could threaten the industry as compliance could be extremely difficult.”

How Will Bitcoin Perform in 2024?

The movement of Bitcoin in 2024 is contingent upon several possible bullish and bearish catalysts. The price of Bitcoin in 2024 will be influenced by a number of factors, including institutional adoption, the halving, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic trends.

A number of enforcement actions that shook the crypto industry in 2023 caused confidence to be shaken. The U. S. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission has brought a civil enforcement action against Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, the founder and CEO of Binance, a cryptocurrency exchange.

However, in November, Binance settled with the U. S. Treasury and Department of Justice, as part of which CZ agreed to relinquish control and step down

Most significantly, according to Sciberras, Binance “did not see a bank run on the exchange” and was not accused of misusing customer funds. ”.

“The market couldn’t have asked for a better result, and as a result, cryptocurrency prices surged,” he says.

“Binance was a huge grey cloud over the cryptocurrency space, but as we approach 2024, the settlement is a big green flag.” ”.

How Low Will Bitcoin Go?

FAQ

What is the bottom prediction for bitcoin in 2022?

What will bitcoin price end at in 2022?

How low can BTC go?

Is bitcoin still a good investment 2022?

Will Bitcoin prices go lower in 2022?

Bitcoin has entered the 2nd phase of the 4-year halving cycle, which means historically prices may go lower in 2022. As of lately, BTC prices are more correlated to the stock market as institutional investors view Bitcoin as no more than a fancy “tech stock”.

Will bitcoin sink below $20,000 in 2022?

From Tim Draper to top crypto bosses, the market was awash with pundits predicting new record highs for bitcoin in 2022. Other market players were less positive, and some correctly called bitcoin sinking below the $20,000 mark, even as low as $10,000.

Is bitcoin a good investment in 2022?

Bitcoin may have taken a beating so far in 2022, but the crypto remains one of the best long-term investments in the market in recent years. Bitcoin prices are still up more than 110% over the past three years and a whopping 740% over the past five years.

Will bitcoin drop 80% in 2022?

Ian Harnett, co-founder of Absolute Strategy Research, said past crypto rallies show bitcoin tends to fall roughly 80% from all-time highs. Such a drop in 2022 would likely drag the world’s biggest token down to $13,000 — a “key support area,” according to Harnett.